One of the big topics on everyone's mind these days is the possible war with Iraq. There are rallies to protest and there are a great number of talk show hosts and assorted pundits rambling interminably about the situation. Well, now it's my turn and I don't think it is something to be taken too seriously.
Naturally, most everyone wants to avoid war. There's that whole thing about the killing and the suffering and all the other crap as reasons to not go to war. I can understand that, but I don't really see the United States going to war with Iraq. It just isn't as likely as some would say.
The U.S. is doing a great deal of posturing. This is fairly normal. Iraq is a great country to do this posturing toward. It is country with no real friends or allies. It has a leader that no one likes. Most would agree that the Iraqi people would be better off if they suffered a change in leadership. Basically, you can bully Iraq all you want and no one is going to be too upset except the Iraqis.
That's not to say that some people won't pretend to be upset. Anytime one country acts the bully toward another it is a perfect opportunity for posturing by all the 'civilized' nations. "You can't attack them." "War is naughty, you shouldn't do it." The whole time this is going on, the U.S. can pull against them saying, "Hold me back, hold me back!"
Such a tantrum does have the effect of getting the administration's way a little bit. The other countries give a little and say to Iraqi, "We don't know if we can hold them much longer," in an international game of good cop/bad cop.
Does this mean that we're likely to go to war? Not really. Iraq would have to do something amazingly stupid for the United States to invade. There is nothing to be gained by such an attack even if there is plenty to be gained by all the posturing.
What about all the Weapons of Mass Destruction? Do you really believe they are there? The administration claims to have 'secret evidence' of these weapons. If that were the case, they would just move troops in or saturation bomb the area.
If you want to see how the government deals with a nation that has such weapons, watch how they deal with North Korea. That country says they have the weapons and are not afraid to use them. The U.S. treats North Korea like it's a rabid badger. How does that compare with the way they handle the Iraqi threat?
Are we likely to go to war with Iraq? No. I don't know the reason for all the posturing. Maybe it's a distraction from all the economic woes at home. Maybe it's an excuse to boost military spending. Maybe it was a failed attempt to promote nationalism. Maybe it is for the benefit of some of our allies. Who knows what mysteries are buried in the minds in Washington?
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